seems like StatsBase.predict()
gives only the point estimate (the mean) of prediction. How could I get more information like confidence interval or standard error of the prediction (not the coefficients)? thanks.
Depends on the model I suppose? For a LinearModel
it’s:
predict(mm::LinearModel, newx::AbstractMatrix;
interval::Union{Symbol,Nothing} = nothing, level::Real = 0.95)
If interval is nothing (the default), return a vector with the predicted values for model mm and new data newx. Otherwise, return a
3-column matrix with the prediction and the lower and upper confidence bounds for a given level (0.95 equates alpha = 0.05). Valid
values of interval are :confidence delimiting the uncertainty of the predicted relationship, and :prediction delimiting estimated
bounds for new data points.
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A few things:
Suppose the true model is y = E[y|X] + \varepsilon
- Confidence intervals (CI) give a range for the conditional expectation E[y|X]
Prediction intervals (PI) give a range for y
PIs tend to be wider than CIs b/c they also take the true error term into account - There are many different ways of estimating PIs, some have different properties, others work better under different assumptions.
My favorite recent paper on this is: Predictive inference with the jackknife+
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