Optimizing a 2 parameter simple ODE

I am having trouble understanding the results of code that optimizes a two parameter ODE.

using DifferentialEquations
using DiffEqParamEstim
using Optim

data = [3140, 3232, 3488, 3415, 3192, 3265, 2961, 3548, 4269, 4681, 4415, 4883, 4150, 4394, 5856, 7126, 9130, 9367, 10631, 10737, 11688, 14993, 20665, 23957, 23621, 21338, 22034, 33781, 32013, 39840, 45961, 45359, 46126, 38077, 37410, 39431]

# growth model 
function f(C,params,t)
    r, p = params[1], params[2]
data = Int64.(dff.totalReportedCases)
c0 = 3140
tspan = (0,length(data)-1)
prob = ODEProblem(f, c0, tspan, [0.5, 0.8]) #sets up the problem 
sol = solve(prob, Tsit5(), reltol=1e-8, abstol=1e-8, saveat=1) # a nice solution

# lets try to optimize the parameters r and p 
cost_function = build_loss_objective(prob, Tsit5(), L2Loss(tspan, data), maxiters=10000,verbose=false)
result = Optim.optimize(cost_function, [0.5, 0.8])

which gives


2-element Vector{Float64}:

but if I use these parameters for r and p, I get really bad results (sorry, I am not plotting the results here but if it will help, I can certainly attach some images)

prob = ODEProblem(f, c0, tspan, result.minimizer)
sol = solve(prob, Tsit5(), reltol=1e-8, abstol=1e-8, saveat=1)

Moreover, the optimized values are sensitive to the initial values given. Is there a better algorithm that might not be so sensitive on the initial conditions?

Also, I tried using LeastSquaresOptim but I can’t get it to run.

using LeastSquaresOptim
cost_function = build_lsoptim_objective(prob, tspan, data, Tsit5())
lsp = LeastSquaresProblem(x = [0.5, 0.5], f! = cost_function, output_length = 2)
res = optimize!(lsp, LeastSquaresOptim.Dogleg())

BoundsError: attempt to access 2-element Vector{Float64} at index [-33:2]

(the other minor issue is that the namespace is polluted. Perhaps I am using a different overloaded version of optimize).

I was able to figure out the LeastSquaresOptim problem. When construction the cost function using build_lsoptim_objective(prob, t, data, alg) the t argument refers to the saveat parameter in the ODE solve command. It does not refer to the original tspan of the ODE although that’s what it looks like.

Also, the objective function that is returned from build_lsoptim_objective has the signature

function(out, p) ... end 

where out is a preallocated vector to store the results of the ODE problem. And therefore, the output_length parameter in LeastSquaresProblem constructor is actually the length of your data (or whatever lenght your ODE solution has).

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