Same, it seems to be very unpredictable sometimes.
However, one reason could be that Julia only stores 10 different precompilation files for a package by default. In my case, I set export JULIA_MAX_NUM_PRECOMPILE_FILES=50
to have more files stored.
Also shameless plug: I assembled PrecompileAfterUpdate.jl which avoids the unexpected precompilation after Julia updates. It crawls through your recent manifests and precompiles then whenever you want (for example after a Julia update)