You don’t need to do simulations, you can do this analytically. It simplifies a lot because (a) the DFT is linear and (b) the frequency components are orthogonal (when integrated over a common period), and the upshot is that you can analyze just the Nyquist term by itself:
In particular, take a function f(x)=a_{+}e^{i\pi x}+a_{-}e^{-i\pi x}, sampled at the Nyquist frequency f(n)=(a_{+}+a_{-})(-1)^{n} so we can only measure 2a=a_{+}+a_{-}. We reconstruct/interpolate it as a signal \tilde{f}(x)=2a\left[c_{+}e^{i\pi x}+c_{-}e^{-i\pi x}\right]. Question: what coefficients c_{\pm} minimize the expected mean-square error E[\int|f(x)-\tilde{f}(x)|^{2}dx] if a_{\pm} are i.i.d. random numbers with zero mean and some distribution (e.g. Gaussian)?
By explicit computation:
(using the facts that E[a_{+}\overline{a_{-}}]=0 and E[|a_{+}|^{2}]=E[|a_{-}|^{2}]), which is minimized for \boxed{c_{\pm}=\frac{1}{2}}.
That is, the optimal interpolant is \boxed{\tilde{f}(x)=a\left[e^{i\pi x}+e^{-i\pi x}\right]}, which corresponds to splitting the Nyquist amplitude 2a equally between the positive- and negative-frequency terms. This also coincides with the minimal mean-square slope interpolant from above, and has the nice property that it interpolates real signals f (a_- = \overline{a_+} \implies a purely real) with real interpolants \tilde{f}. (The same analysis also works, with the same optimal interpolant \tilde{f}, if we average over purely real signals f with random a_+=\overline{a_-}, since in that case we still have E[a_{+}\overline{a_{-}}]=E[a_+^2]=0 if the real and imaginary parts of a_+ are i.i.d. with zero mean.)
No \sqrt{2}.