# SIR modeling in Soss

**URL:** <https://discourse.julialang.org/t/sir-modeling-in-soss/36680>\
**Category:** Probabilistic Programming\
**Created:** [March 29, 2020, 3:57pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/sir-modeling-in-soss/36680 "2020-03-29T15:57:28Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 16

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**Author:** ![cscherrer](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/julialang/user_avatar/discourse.julialang.org/cscherrer/32/7631_2.png) [@cscherrer](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/cscherrer)\
**Post date:** [April 5, 2020, 3:11pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/sir-modeling-in-soss/36680/16 "2020-04-05T15:11:13Z")

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I agree γ is really the fatality rate per time unit, but I don’t yet how the case “eventual fatality” rate is γ/β. I’d think that’s an odds ratio, and the actual rate is γ/(β+γ). But I might well be missing something.

Also, thanks for [your note about changing population size](https://twitter.com/inferencelab/status/1246677342078095361)!

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