# Probabilistic Programming

**URL:** https://discourse.julialang.org/c/domain/probprog/48.md?page=14

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**Page:** 15

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## [Community chat 09/20 10 EST](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/community-chat-09-20-10-est/46417)

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**Author:** [@McCoy](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/McCoy)\
**Replies:** 10\
**Last updated:** [September 16, 2020, 7:58pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/community-chat-09-20-10-est/46417 "2020-09-16T19:58:45Z")

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Please post topics of interest here.

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## [Triple buffering](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/triple-buffering/46616)

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**Author:** [@cscherrer](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/cscherrer)\
**Replies:** 2\
**Last updated:** [September 15, 2020, 2:52am UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/triple-buffering/46616 "2020-09-15T02:52:41Z")

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Hi, I’m curious if anyone has tried triple buffering. This is a generally useful framework, but I’m specifically thinking allocation-free MCMC (or maybe more accurately, iteration-independent allocation count). I think …

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## [Getting off the ground with Gen](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/getting-off-the-ground-with-gen/44211)

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**Author:** [@terdmann](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/terdmann)\
**Replies:** 1\
**Last updated:** [September 14, 2020, 7:13pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/getting-off-the-ground-with-gen/44211 "2020-09-14T19:13:48Z")

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I am really interested in Gen.jl, but am somewhat confused from the documentation. That is, I could not find any example of the functionality I’m trying to use. Can someone help me with the first steps? My first questio…

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## [StackOverflowError when fitting data to a von Mises distribution](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/stackoverflowerror-when-fitting-data-to-a-von-mises-distribution/45406)

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**Author:** [@oscarbelmon](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/oscarbelmon)\
**Replies:** 4\
**Last updated:** [September 11, 2020, 8:05am UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/stackoverflowerror-when-fitting-data-to-a-von-mises-distribution/45406 "2020-09-11T08:05:26Z")

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Hi everyone. I’m trying to use Turing.jl to fit data to a von Mises circular distribution, and I am having some “stack overflow” issues during the fitting. This is my (very simple) code (coin flip adaptation): using T…

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## [Shared base library for PPL](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/shared-base-library-for-ppl/45901)

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**Author:** [@cscherrer](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/cscherrer)\
**Replies:** 9\
**Last updated:** [September 5, 2020, 8:29am UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/shared-base-library-for-ppl/45901 "2020-09-05T08:29:40Z")

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Hong Ge (are you on Disourse?) recently posted this comment in the probprog channel on Slack: …I think it is quite helpful to consider carefully how we, as a community, can work together to build a better platform for …

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## [JuliaCon 2020 Birds of a Feather](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/juliacon-2020-birds-of-a-feather/39181)

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**Author:** [@cscherrer](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/cscherrer)\
**Replies:** 24\
**Last updated:** [August 28, 2020, 12:31pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/juliacon-2020-birds-of-a-feather/39181 "2020-08-28T12:31:48Z")

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The “Probabilistic Programming in Julia” BoF proposal was accepted! Here’s the text: Julia’s PPL community is strong and growing. The various groups already have a strong professional relationship, but a BoF would help…

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## [\[ANN\] Turing.jl 0.14.0](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/ann-turing-jl-0-14-0/45520)

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**Author:** [@cpfiffer](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/cpfiffer)\
**Replies:** 0\
**Last updated:** [August 25, 2020, 5:16pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/ann-turing-jl-0-14-0/45520 "2020-08-25T17:16:47Z")

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Hey folks, It’s been a while since our last release, which we’re hoping to avoid entirely. The Turing-verse is mostly adapting Colprac going forward, which means we’ll be flagging releases much more frequently to keep u…

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## [Poisson processes for many related univariate time series](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/poisson-processes-for-many-related-univariate-time-series/45211)

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**Author:** [@mystis](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/mystis)\
**Replies:** 4\
**Last updated:** [August 20, 2020, 4:19pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/poisson-processes-for-many-related-univariate-time-series/45211 "2020-08-20T16:19:21Z")

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Hi everyone, I’ve been wanting to do some time series forecasting with Turing, because I’d like forecasting intervals as well. For practice, I’d like to forecast the norway car sales dataset. In short, it has ten years …

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## [Conceptual Gaussian Process Questions](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/conceptual-gaussian-process-questions/44305)

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**Author:** [@nucklass](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/nucklass)\
**Replies:** 15\
**Last updated:** [August 17, 2020, 5:56pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/conceptual-gaussian-process-questions/44305 "2020-08-17T17:56:26Z")

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Hi! This is more of a theoretical tangent, so forgive me if this is a bit off topic. I’ve recently finished my undergrad in Statistics and have been trying to navigate the US job market, to fairly dismal results. Anyway,…

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## [Turing Model debug info](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/turing-model-debug-info/40440)

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**Author:** [@rsteckel](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/rsteckel)\
**Replies:** 6\
**Last updated:** [August 17, 2020, 2:55pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/turing-model-debug-info/40440 "2020-08-17T14:55:26Z")

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Is there a way to get more information about when Turing is unable to sample from a model? For example, I tried a simple (univariate) mixture of gaussians model and when I try to sample from it, I get this error: ERROR…

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## [Error using Turing + ReverseDiff with PyJulia](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/error-using-turing-reversediff-with-pyjulia/44791)

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**Author:** [@vyasakanksha](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/vyasakanksha)\
**Replies:** 0\
**Last updated:** [August 12, 2020, 8:55am UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/error-using-turing-reversediff-with-pyjulia/44791 "2020-08-12T08:55:41Z")

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I am getting an error when I use Turing and Reverse Diff with Pyjulia, shown below. Does anyone have any experience getting this to work? Also created a MWE here: https://gist.github.com/vyasakanksha/500d611a28e02c18a31…

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## [Custom Likelihood Distribution/increment likelihood](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/custom-likelihood-distribution-increment-likelihood/44292)

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**Author:** [@jdselwyn](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/jdselwyn)\
**Replies:** 7\
**Last updated:** [August 7, 2020, 3:59pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/custom-likelihood-distribution-increment-likelihood/44292 "2020-08-07T15:59:08Z")

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Hi, I’m fairly new to Julia so my apologies if this is an obvious question. I’m trying to create a model to sample from the below log-likelihood function. The C matrix is a constant and Δ follows a Dirichlet distribution…

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## [Fresh julia 1.5 install and turing error](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/fresh-julia-1-5-install-and-turing-error/44255)

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**Author:** [@spinkney](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/spinkney)\
**Replies:** 3\
**Last updated:** [August 4, 2020, 1:28pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/fresh-julia-1-5-install-and-turing-error/44255 "2020-08-04T13:28:04Z")

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Just installed Julia 1.5 on macbook pro running catalina 10.15.6. I did import Pkg; Pkg.add("Turing") along with StatsPlots and Random. I then tried the demo in the turing manual and get an error right away: julia\> usin…

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## [Tips for large-ish latent variable model in Turing](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/tips-for-large-ish-latent-variable-model-in-turing/43388)

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**Author:** [@opera\_malenky](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/opera_malenky)\
**Replies:** 3\
**Last updated:** [July 31, 2020, 7:12pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/tips-for-large-ish-latent-variable-model-in-turing/43388 "2020-07-31T19:12:54Z")

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Hi - I have a data set (~900 x 120) on which I’m trying to do dimension reduction. Eventually, I want to test some factor mixture models, but right now, I simply want to do a basic factor analysis. The data set isn’t hug…

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## [Calculate joint probability from Turing model](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/calculate-joint-probability-from-turing-model/43545)

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**Author:** [@treichelt](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/treichelt)\
**Replies:** 3\
**Last updated:** [July 24, 2020, 2:35pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/calculate-joint-probability-from-turing-model/43545 "2020-07-24T14:35:30Z")

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Given a model defined in Turing I would like to calculate the joint probability function over all the variables. Say I have the model @model function model(y) mu ~ Normal(0, 1) y ~ Normal(mu, 1) end y\_obs = 1 m…

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## [Variational Inference for Multinomial output](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/variational-inference-for-multinomial-output/43498)

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**Author:** [@Farlein](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/Farlein)\
**Replies:** 0\
**Last updated:** [July 22, 2020, 2:58pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/variational-inference-for-multinomial-output/43498 "2020-07-22T14:58:08Z")

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Hi there, I want to use Variational Inference in Turing for Multinomial output. Here are the simulated data. There are 400 2-dimension observations in 4 groups. The purpose is to identify which group each observation be…

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## [Handling Correlated shocks in HMM](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/handling-correlated-shocks-in-hmm/43355)

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**Author:** [@balaji1975](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/balaji1975)\
**Replies:** 4\
**Last updated:** [July 21, 2020, 11:43am UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/handling-correlated-shocks-in-hmm/43355 "2020-07-21T11:43:13Z")

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Is there a way to handle the below in Turing? y(t) = f(y(t-1), s(t)) + g(y(t-1), s(t)) \* e1(t) s(t) = p(s(t-1)) + q(s(t-1)) \* e2(t) y(t) is the data (Tx1) and s(t) is the (hidden) state variable. e1 & e2 are correlate…

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## [Summary statistics for arbitrary variables within Turing model](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/summary-statistics-for-arbitrary-variables-within-turing-model/43120)

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**Author:** [@balaji1975](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/balaji1975)\
**Replies:** 2\
**Last updated:** [July 15, 2020, 10:30pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/summary-statistics-for-arbitrary-variables-within-turing-model/43120 "2020-07-15T22:30:38Z")

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Hi - Is there a way to get summary stats on theta defined in the model below? @model schools(y, s) = begin N = length(y) eta = Array{Float64}(undef, N) theta = Array{Float64}(undef, N) mu ~ Uniform(-100, 100) tau…

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## [Using Dict() to directly define variables](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/using-dict-to-directly-define-variables/42972)

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**Author:** [@Emmanuel-R8](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/Emmanuel-R8)\
**Replies:** 0\
**Last updated:** [July 13, 2020, 6:27am UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/using-dict-to-directly-define-variables/42972 "2020-07-13T06:27:25Z")

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Inspired by this article "Time Series Structure Discovery via Probabilistic Program Synthesis, I wanted to use a dictionary to store a tree of random variables and operations. Below model1 works; model2 fails with "VarNa…

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## [Updating to MCMCChains v4.0.0 results in Turing downgrade](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/updating-to-mcmcchains-v4-0-0-results-in-turing-downgrade/41463)

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**Author:** [@EricChameroy](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/EricChameroy)\
**Replies:** 9\
**Last updated:** [June 16, 2020, 7:23pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/updating-to-mcmcchains-v4-0-0-results-in-turing-downgrade/41463 "2020-06-16T19:23:19Z")

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Upgrading to the latest MCMChains results in Turing downgrading from v0.13.0 to v0.7.1. Has anyone else had this issue? Is there a workaround? In the meantime, I’ve pinned Turing to prevent the downgrade. Should I repor…

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## [Turing.jl: fix some parameters to prior distribution](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/turing-jl-fix-some-parameters-to-prior-distribution/41095)

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**Author:** [@MFairley](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/MFairley)\
**Replies:** 14\
**Last updated:** [June 10, 2020, 5:27pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/turing-jl-fix-some-parameters-to-prior-distribution/41095 "2020-06-10T17:27:35Z")

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I’m testing out Turing.jl and I’m wondering if I can specify a subset of parameters to remain fixed at their prior distribution. I would still like to sample these parameters to get a joint distribution with the other pa…

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## [Need help with Variational Inference](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/need-help-with-variational-inference/40789)

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**Author:** [@Farlein](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/Farlein)\
**Replies:** 0\
**Last updated:** [June 5, 2020, 3:08am UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/need-help-with-variational-inference/40789 "2020-06-05T03:08:28Z")

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Hi there, I have been recently attracted to variational inference. I like the idea to link Bayesian modeling with optimization. I like its uni modal approximation to the parameters in a model (by assuming the variationa…

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## [\[ANN\]: Turing 0.13.0 - MLE/MAP and prediction](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/ann-turing-0-13-0-mle-map-and-prediction/40033)

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**Author:** [@cpfiffer](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/cpfiffer)\
**Replies:** 6\
**Last updated:** [May 25, 2020, 10:48pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/ann-turing-0-13-0-mle-map-and-prediction/40033 "2020-05-25T22:48:12Z")

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We’re happy to announce Turing 0.13.0, which brings a suite of much-needed features. I am particularly happy about this one because it is a feature-rich release, which is always fun. Maximum likelihood and maximum a pos…

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## [Bayesian inference in the presence of intractable integral](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/bayesian-inference-in-the-presence-of-intractable-integral/40061)

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**Author:** [@francesco.alemanno](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/francesco.alemanno)\
**Replies:** 13\
**Last updated:** [May 25, 2020, 2:43pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/bayesian-inference-in-the-presence-of-intractable-integral/40061 "2020-05-25T14:43:53Z")

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Hi guys, recently i’ve learned about the powerful packages for bayesian inference in julia i would like some tips on how to attack this problem, given this probabiliy distribution over the angles \\theta: P(\\vec \\theta…

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## [TArray push in Turing.jl](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/tarray-push-in-turing-jl/39980)

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**Author:** [@fooman](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/fooman)\
**Replies:** 9\
**Last updated:** [May 25, 2020, 2:28pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/tarray-push-in-turing-jl/39980 "2020-05-25T14:28:26Z")

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Just trying to convert the “Infinite Mixture” tutorial example to work with bivariate (as opposed to univariate) clusters: https://turing.ml/dev/tutorials/6-infinitemixturemodel/ In the tutorial, one has: # Locatio…

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## [Language impediments to inference of real-time streaming models](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/language-impediments-to-inference-of-real-time-streaming-models/39731)

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**Author:** [@marty0801](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/marty0801)\
**Replies:** 6\
**Last updated:** [May 19, 2020, 1:42pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/language-impediments-to-inference-of-real-time-streaming-models/39731 "2020-05-19T13:42:15Z")

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I’m debating whether to attempt a Julia solution to a particular “streaming” inference problem in which a global data model is constantly being updated with new data. I’m new to the language, but there seems to be langua…

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## [Primitive drawing in array (Luxor & JuliaImages)](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/primitive-drawing-in-array-luxor-juliaimages/39580)

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**Author:** [@JuliaIncomplete](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/JuliaIncomplete)\
**Replies:** 3\
**Last updated:** [May 17, 2020, 5:08pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/primitive-drawing-in-array-luxor-juliaimages/39580 "2020-05-17T17:08:34Z")

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I’m trying to do some probabilistic programming and generate some ellipses to look like the target image. In theory this can work but it is quite slow as the way I’m drawing ellipses is using Luxor. As far as I can see, …

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## [Multivariate dirichlet mixture with Turing](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/multivariate-dirichlet-mixture-with-turing/39546)

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**Author:** [@fooman](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/fooman)\
**Replies:** 6\
**Last updated:** [May 16, 2020, 3:06pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/multivariate-dirichlet-mixture-with-turing/39546 "2020-05-16T15:06:18Z")

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Hi – I’m trying to fit a mixture of 4 bivariate gaussians with Turing and getting a strange error? Can someone help with the syntax here: @model GaussianMixtureModel(x, K) = begin # K is expected number of clusters # …

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## [\[ANN\] Turing.jl 0.12.0 release](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/ann-turing-jl-0-12-0-release/38927)

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**Author:** [@cpfiffer](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/cpfiffer)\
**Replies:** 5\
**Last updated:** [May 14, 2020, 6:31pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/ann-turing-jl-0-12-0-release/38927 "2020-05-14T18:31:30Z")

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Hey folks. Turing 0.12.0 is out, and it comes with a lovely set of changes and updates. There are some deprecations and API changes, so please read carefully if 1) you use custom distributions or 2) you use the paralle…

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## [Type instability with Dirichlet distribution in Turing](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/type-instability-with-dirichlet-distribution-in-turing/39300)

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**Author:** [@ElOceanografo](https://discourse.julialang.org/u/ElOceanografo)\
**Replies:** 3\
**Last updated:** [May 12, 2020, 4:26pm UTC](https://discourse.julialang.org/t/type-instability-with-dirichlet-distribution-in-turing/39300 "2020-05-12T16:26:52Z")

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I’m fitting a marginalized Gaussian mixture model with Turing, and the sampler is running very slowly. Looking at the output of @code\_warntype, it appears that drawing the mixture weights from a Dirichlet distribution i…

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